Compared to the 2023-24 winter, the 3rd warmest on record in history, a 13 percent increase is predicted for the 2024-25 season
With some weather forecasts predicting the first snow to fall in late October for much of western New York, the reality of the pending winter is beginning to hit home for many area residents. To help customers prepare for the upcoming winter, National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation (“the Utility” or “National Fuel”) today released its forecast for home heating costs. Should western New York return to seasonally “normal” temperatures consistent with the 15-year historical average, the typical National Fuel residential customer will see their winter utility bills increase 13% versus last season. For the 5-month period of November through March, National Fuel estimates that residential winter heating costs will total $560 for an average monthly bill of $112. Compared to last winter, which was the third warmest on record for Buffalo and its surrounding communities, residential heating costs averaged $494, or $99 per month. Temperatures last winter were nearly 16% warmer-than-normal. National Fuel had projected last year’s winter bills, with more typical colder weather, to be $572 for the 5-month period.
The projected increase is driven by several factors, including the expectation of a colder winter which will result in customers using more gas for home heating, and the estimated increase in delivery rates following the conclusion of Utility’s base rate case. Last fall, National Fuel requested the New York Public Service Commission (“PSC”) for its first base delivery rate increase since 2017. An increase in the Utility’s delivery rates could take effect as early as Dec. 1, 2024, pending the PSC’s decision on a joint proposal filed in September. Gas supply rates are expected to be relatively unchanged as market prices for natural gas have remained low and fairly stable.
National Fuel’s winter heating bill forecast can change based on important factors that are out of the Utility’s control, including colder or warmer than normal weather and the potential for fluctuations in market prices for natural gas supplies. National Fuel does not set the price of the natural gas supplies it buys, stores and delivers to its customers. Rather, the Utility passes its costs along to the customer at the very same rate without mark up or profit. While market prices for natural gas could rise over the course of the winter, National Fuel has already purchased and placed into storage approximately 40% of its gas supply requirements for the winter at low market prices.
“While we are expecting a modest increase in bills this winter, heating with natural gas remains the most affordable and reliable energy source for the residents and businesses in western New York,” said Donna L. DeCarolis, President of National Fuel. “Market prices for natural gas, the cost of the energy source, have remained low and relatively stable for more than a decade. And even though we expect an increase in our delivery rates for only the second time in more than 15 years, our customers will continue to benefit from among the lowest delivery rates in the state while having the peace of mind that they have safe access to a reliable energy source on the coldest of Buffalo days.”
Forecasted New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) natural gas pricing for the upcoming winter, when the remaining gas supplies will be purchased, are currently running in the range of $2.75 to $3.50 when compared to this summer at costs ranging from $1.575 to $2.626 per mmbtu.
Numerous payment assistance programs, totaling a maximum of $1,876 per household are available for Western New York customers to receive much-needed funds to pay their utility bill if they meet eligibility requirements. Any customer needing assistance managing their energy bill should call National Fuel at 1.800.365.3234, Monday through Friday from 7 a.m. through 6 p.m.- or visit the utility’s website today at www.nationalfuel.com to get more information on the following programs:
- Home Energy Assistance Program (HEAP) – Opening Nov. 1, this federally-funded program provides significant help with energy bills with grants ranging from $400 – $496 for basic and an additional $400 each for up to two emergency grants.
- NYS Energy Affordability Program (Statewide Low-Income Program) – Provides monthly bill discounts on gas delivery charges. Customers who receive HEAP are automatically enrolled and customers who receive other financial assistance are urged to visit our website or call for details.Current discounts available up to a maximum of $23.36 per month.
- Neighbor for Neighbor Heat Fund – $300 grants help customers meet basic energy needs with any of the following situations: disabled, have a certified medical emergency, at least 55 years old, recently unemployed or a veteran.
- Special Protections – Safeguards exist for customers who live in households where all residents are 62 years or older, 18 years or younger or disabled.
- Deferred Payment Plans – Special arrangements can be made for a repayment plan based on individual financial circumstances.
- Conservation Incentive Program (CIP)– Provides rebates for installing high-efficiency appliances in your home.
- Sealed– In partnership with National Fuel, covers the upfront costs for upgrades that improve home energy efficiency through weatherization, climate control and more.
- HomeServe – A leading provider of home repair solutions that combines a new HVAC system, installation and ongoing cost efficiency, plus service and maintenance—in one convenient program. The goal is to provide homeowners with the tools to help them protect against the expense, worry and inconvenience of heating and cooling system emergencies.
National Fuel does recommend that customers use the Budget Plan for predictable, stable monthly payments by estimating usage over a 12-month period. This plan prevents seasonal billing swings and takes the guesswork out of planning for utility costs by allowing a customer to pay a set amount each month and receive alerts anytime the set amount is scheduled to change.
Convenient payment options are available with AutoPay, having a bill automatically paid on the due date using a credit card or bank account; and Pay by Text, a one-time payment via the website to store the payment method and then responding via text to pay subsequent bills.
National Fuel Gas Distribution Corporation is the Utility segment of National Fuel Gas Company, a diversified energy company that is engaged in a number of natural gas-related activities. The Utility provides natural gas service to more than 2.1 million residents in Western New York and northwestern Pennsylvania. For more information, visit nationalfuel.com.
